Nigeria's Real Estate: Industry Analysis
An in-depth analysis of Nigeria's real estate industry, examining the impact of COVID-19, market trends, and future outlook for the sector.
Nigeria's Real Estate: Industry Analysis
In 2020, the GDP of the Nigerian real estate industry was ₦3.96 trillion, a 9.4% decline from the prior year's ₦4.37 trillion. The Lagos Real Estate Market was adversely affected by a slowdown in business activities and job losses, elicited by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Impact of COVID-19 on Household Dynamics
According to the World Bank, one major change observed as a coping mechanism at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic was an increase in the size of households from an average of 5.5 members in February 2019 to 6.6 members in November 2020.
A major reason for this development is that individuals moved in with parents or other relatives to pool incomes and manage the challenges faced through the COVID-19 crisis.
Housing Deficit Challenges
The housing deficit in Nigeria remains high at about 22 million, comparing less favorably to other African countries:
| Country | Housing Deficit |
|---|---|
| Nigeria | 22 million |
| South Africa | 2.3 million |
| Kenya | 2 million |
| Angola | 1.9 million |
| Ghana | 1.7 million |
The huge gap between Nigeria and its peers is due to the large and increasing population in Nigeria coupled with other factors such as:
- Considerable rural-urban migration
- High interest rates on mortgages
- Weak capacity building in the industry
Commercial Real Estate Market Impact
The commercial real estate market in Lagos comprises office space, retail, hospitality and industrial sub-segments. It was also impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic as many organizations shut down activities to comply with the lockdown restrictions imposed by the government to curb the spread of the virus.
Office Space Trends
Some expiring lease contracts were not renewed in 2020 due to the emergence of remote working, leading to significant changes in office space demand patterns.
Hospitality Sector Challenges
The hospitality segment witnessed a drop in occupancy rate to circa 25% in 2020 from about 40% in 2019. Many operators in this segment, particularly hotels, were forced to include "meal take-outs" as a service offering to moderate revenue losses during the year.
Industrial Real Estate Opportunities
In the industrial sub-segment, there is rising demand for warehousing and logistics services from e-retailers driven by opportunities arising from the lockdown restrictions imposed by the government.
Prediction: This demand will remain strong post-COVID as e-commerce related demand and supply growth continue to move along an upward trajectory.
Future Outlook
The Nigerian real estate market is expected to recover gradually as the economy stabilizes and new opportunities emerge in the post-pandemic landscape.
Key Areas of Growth
- E-commerce logistics and warehousing
- Affordable housing solutions
- Digital transformation in property management
- Sustainable building practices
The industry's resilience and adaptability during challenging times demonstrate its potential for long-term growth and development.
This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of Nigeria's real estate market challenges and opportunities in the post-pandemic era.